Worldwide threat assessment of the French Directorate-General for External Security
Résumé de l'exposé
- The year 2018 has been a really eventful year with unexpected changes in terms of international affairs and regional complexity.
- The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has been a game changer, discombobulating the international order as his predecessor left it.
- Non-state actors are acquiring the same means as state actors in order to model the world as they want.
- Regional tensions have been exacerbated, especially in south-east Asia and the Middle East, where the various actions of POTUS have not been well received.
- The terrorist groups are still thriving in the Sahel region, taking advantage of low state control and capacity.
- The conflicts in the Middle East and in northern Africa will still feed a massive stream of immigration, beefing up nationalists and populist feelings in Eastern Europe, jeopardizing the collaboration between member states of the EU.
- Climate change and pollution will soon be a massive global public health issue that only state will be able to tackle, if they don't fall into denial of this matter, increasing the migration flows and the risk of pandemic with massive amount of human displacement.
- The pollution will start to affect quite seriously our society as the air will become less and less breathable, and as a consequence, people in capital cities will start to develop illness.
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Sommaire de l'exposé
Extraits de l'exposé
[...] - The US response is also an excuse for greater tensions between the US, Russia and China. - We assess that ISIS is also in possession of CW, since a French chemical expert has been enrolled in their ranks and some mustard sulfur attacks were registered, meaning they have both the knowhow and the capacities to develop such warfare. H. Cybersecurity As the cyberspace is developing and its regulations are still not accomplished, state and non-state actors are taking advantage of it, intruding inside foreign country networks, for hacking, monitoring or stealing information purposes. [...]
[...] Worldwide threat assessment of the French Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) Foreword - The year 2018 has been a really eventful year with unexpected changes in terms of international affairs and regional complexity. - The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has been a game changer, discombobulating the international order as his predecessor left it. - Non-state actors are acquiring the same means as state actors in order to model the world as they want. [...]
[...] We must remain sceptical, however, as this might merely be a deceptive strategy. - China's will to emerge as a superpower from now until 2049 is increasing its pace toward nuclear equity in the US, developing a sub marine second-strike ability with modern Han class Submarines and solid fuel ICBM, which might beef up an arms race in the region, or feed a security dilemma. - The Iranian Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and its failure: the signing of the JCPOA in 2015 could have brought better cooperation in the Middle East, especially since the IAEA approved the Iranian engagements in 2017. [...]
[...] - However, the regional stability still hasn't been enforced and we assess an increase in the various illegal traffics both in Sahel and in northern Africa. - The presence of the military in the region is also a threat since that increases the tensions and we are more likely to be blackmailed (collateral damage, hacking into personal data of the personnel, etc.) and the tensions with the civilian population. - Terrorist groups still thrive and operate on a routine basis in the continent, leading to weak state powers and no (if any) human rights enforcement. [...]
[...] We assess that we might suffer from a rise in the criminality rate like Germany which has suffered a rise about in some landers. - The inadequacy of the programs that we are enforcing leads to the creation of slums that can't provide basic human needs. - The creation of human traffic routes in Eastern Europe and the (child) prostitution networks are also direct consequences of the migrant crisis. E. Health and pollution - Air pollution is being a major threat to our nationals, we assess that people will be more and more subject to asthma attacks if they live in cities and that the death toll will rise significantly, due to the constant exposure to harmful gases. [...]
Économie, administration & politique